Product · Platform
The Cairn validates, simulates and keeps the trace
The Cairn is the platform the StoneIR engine runs on, for teams that compare the options of a decision. It checks each decision before any computation, simulates the options on shared draws and records how the result was produced.
Contract
A decision contract with named refusals
A StoneIR decision lists its options, the uncertain figures, and a program that turns them into a monthly net cash flow. The contract has no field for an invented probability. The Cairn names each refused field, with the value expected and the value received.
Figures
Uncertain figures declared as laws
An uncertain figure is a declared law: a range, a most likely value, a heavy tail, or your own monthly series resampled by blocks. The program calls business mechanics such as customer stock and flow, cohort churn, a buyer facing a price, adoption and queues.
- Language functions
- 28, from arithmetic to business mechanics
- Laws for an uncertain figure
- 28 laws: 16 for a value, 12 for a monthly path
- A series point after the decision date
- refused by name
Simulation
Options compared on the same random draws
The options run on common random draws, so a gap between two options stands out from simulation noise. The uncertainty of your figures travels through the calculation, apart from the random error of the simulation.
Precision
The result names the winner, and how sure
Each result carries the probability that the winner beats the runner-up, and the stability of the winner across resamples. It names the values that would reverse the ranking and the figure worth the most to know. Below the thresholds, you are asked to narrow that figure. With nothing left to narrow, no winner is named.
Trace
A trace that replays the calculation
The output records the seed, the number of worlds, the laws, the program, the thresholds and a fingerprint of the input. A result can then be replayed as it was computed. Reproducibility belongs to the calculation, and predictive accuracy is measured apart.
Read
Pages that describe The Cairn
- How a decision is compiled
- the functions, the laws and what justifies a number
- The proof protocol
- a protocol hashed before the run, a registry, calibration and coverage
- Measured data
- the panels the engine reads and the development scores
- Enterprise
- the live domain: business decisions on your own figures